Fundamental Analysis

Pound Rally Takes Pause, Markets Await FOMC Minutes

Pound Rally Takes Pause, Markets Await FOMC Minutes

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GBP/USD is unchanged in the Wednesday session, after posting sharp gains on Tuesday. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3064, up 0.01% on the day. It’s a quiet day on the release front. The sole U.K. indicator, CBI Industrial Order Expectations rebounded with a score of 6, crushing the estimate of -5…
Gold Rips Higher Amid a Quiet Flight to Safety

Gold Rips Higher Amid a Quiet Flight to Safety

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Bullion prices continue to surge, ascending to fresh 10-month highs this week. Since the correlation between gold and the US dollar has diminished lately, it seems a flight to safety is quietly going on, amid global growth and recession concerns. Yet, for buyers to pierce above the elusive $1365 area, some more ‘fuel’ may be…
The Outlook for the Fed’s Balance Sheet: An Update

The Outlook for the Fed’s Balance Sheet: An Update

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Executive Summary In a two-part report we wrote last summer, we analyzed the assets and liabilities of the Fed’s balance sheet to determine at what point it might stop reducing the size of its balance sheet.1 Our analysis found that the Fed would stop the process of “quantitative tightening” in late 2019/early 2020 when the…
US Durable Goods and Manufacturing Gauges Unlikely to Faze Dollar

US Durable Goods and Manufacturing Gauges Unlikely to Faze Dollar

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Thursday will be a busy day for US data with a slew of releases on the agenda. The delayed durable goods orders report for December, due at 13:30 GMT, could be overlooked in favour of the more up-to-date manufacturing activity indicators for February. The Philly Fed manufacturing index will be posted at 13:30 GMT, followed…
Japanese Core Inflation to Inch Up But BoJ Asks for More

Japanese Core Inflation to Inch Up But BoJ Asks for More

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Inflation pressures in Japan decelerated in the last quarter of 2018, forcing the central bank to lower its inflation expectations for 2019. In January, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show a mild rise, but with global risks threatening to boost the safe-haven yen in coming months, questions are now arising about whether the…
Eurozone PMIs and ECB Minutes Next on the Euro’s Radar

Eurozone PMIs and ECB Minutes Next on the Euro’s Radar

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It will be a pivotal week for the euro, as preliminary euro area PMI surveys will hit the markets on Thursday, at 0900 GMT, and will be followed by the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting at 1230 GMT. The PMIs are expected to have stabilized somewhat, which could allay some concerns around the euro…
Japanese Yen Dips on Surprise Japanese Trade Deficit

Japanese Yen Dips on Surprise Japanese Trade Deficit

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USD/JPY has posted slight gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.86, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, Japan posted a rare trade deficit in January, with a reading of JPY -37 trillion. The markets are bracing for further weak releases on Wednesday. Flash Manufacturing PMI…
Canadian Dollar Breaks Below 1.32 as Greenback Under Pressure

Canadian Dollar Breaks Below 1.32 as Greenback Under Pressure

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The Canadian dollar continues to improve this week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3193, down 0.14% on the day. There are no data releases out of the U.S., but investors will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve minutes from the January meeting. There are no Canadian indicators on the schedule. Thursday…
Markets Await Clarity on Trade Talks and Fed’s Dovishness

Markets Await Clarity on Trade Talks and Fed’s Dovishness

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Stocks are poised to open modestly lower, while the dollar is barely firmer against its major trading partners as trade talks continue and ahead of the release of the Fed’s minutes.  As we approach the tail end of earnings season, financial markets have firmly priced in a soft first quarter, that could go negative and…
DAX Climbs to 10-Week Peak as Investors Optimistic on US-China Talks

DAX Climbs to 10-Week Peak as Investors Optimistic on US-China Talks

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The DAX index has edged higher on Wednesday. Currently, the DAX is at 11,354, up 0.40% on the day. On the fundamental front, there are no major German or eurozone events. German PPI rebounded with a gain of 0.4%, beating the estimate of -0.2%. Later in the day, eurozone consumer confidence is expected to post…