Fundamental Analysis

BoC Keeps Rate Cut Prospects Alive

BoC Keeps Rate Cut Prospects Alive

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Overnight rate held at 1.75% for a 15th straight month Near-term growth projections revised lower Dovish policy statement sends loonie lower After a neutral speech from Governor Poloz just two weeks ago, the Bank of Canada sounded decidedly more dovish in today’s policy statement. Economic data over the last three months were described as “mixed”…
No Fireworks at ECB Meeting, but PMIs Could Drive Euro

No Fireworks at ECB Meeting, but PMIs Could Drive Euro

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The European Central Bank (ECB) will conclude its policy meeting at 12:45 GMT on Thursday, and a press conference will follow at 13:30 GMT. If there is any change in tone from the ECB, it might be towards a slightly more upbeat narrative, though any major market reaction seems unlikely. Rather, the euro’s near-term direction…
UK PMIs to Rebound in January But will it be Enough to Quash Rate Cut Speculation?

UK PMIs to Rebound in January But will it be Enough to Quash Rate Cut Speculation?

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The flash PMI releases due on Friday (9:30 GMT) for the United Kingdom will be highly significant as they could be the deciding factor for the Bank of England ahead of their rate setting meeting on January 30. There have been strong hints lately from BoE officials that a rate cut is very much on…
EUR/GBP: Brexit and BOE and Bears, Oh My!

EUR/GBP: Brexit and BOE and Bears, Oh My!

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In the wake of a solid UK jobs report yesterday (claimants rose just 14.9k, unemployment steady at 3.8% and average hourly earnings +3.2% annualized) and a better-than-expected CBI Industrial Orders report this morning, the British pound is the day’s strongest major currency. Of course, for businesses and households, these month-to-month economic reports pale in comparison…
Canadian Inflation Trends Steady in December

Canadian Inflation Trends Steady in December

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Consumer prices up 2.2% year-over-year in December – unchanged from November Energy price growth ticked up to 5.5% year-over-year Measures of underlying inflation still firmly anchored around 2% The December CPI data was broadly as-expected with most measures of price growth, on balance, holding right around the Bank of Canada’s 2% target rate. Prices at…
Canadian Inflation Ends 2019 A Touch Above Target

Canadian Inflation Ends 2019 A Touch Above Target

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The information contained in this report has been prepared for the information of our customers by TD Bank Financial Group. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does TD Bank Financial Group assume any responsibility or…
Stocks Rally on Earnings and on Optimism China Will Contain Virus, Oil Slides, Gold Remains Steady

Stocks Rally on Earnings and on Optimism China Will Contain Virus, Oil Slides, Gold Remains Steady

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US stocks are rising after China’s National Health Commission announced plans to contain the coronavirus and following strong earnings results from IBM and Netflix. The pneumonia-like virus has killed nine people and infected 473 people in China. Financial markets are not panicking as health agencies are better prepared than they were in 2003 when SARS…
Davos Diverts Attention From BoC And Earnings

Davos Diverts Attention From BoC And Earnings

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It’s a mixed bag across Europe on Wednesday, with much of the headlines coming from Davos where Trump delivered his keynote speech yesterday. It’s always interesting to hear the views of some of the world’s most influential people at these events but so far, as many expected, it’s having little impact on the markets. It…
Sense Of Calm Returns Regarding The Coronavirus Outbreak

Sense Of Calm Returns Regarding The Coronavirus Outbreak

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Notes/Observations Market asses that economic impact on China from coronavirus was likely to be transitory China announced nationwide screening to address the outbreak of a new respiratory virus. Assured the public and international community that they were moving swiftly. China confirms 9 dead from coronavirus and 440 infected (Note: Cases of the virus have been…
Lazy Loonie Awaits BoC Interest Rate Decision…

Lazy Loonie Awaits BoC Interest Rate Decision…

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Today during the American session (15:00, GMT) we get BoC’s interest rate decision which is widely expected to remain on hold. Currently CAD OIS imply a probability for the bank to remain on hold of 97.50%. Should the bank remain on hold as expected, we could see the market’s attention turning to the accompanying statement.…