Central Banks

BOJ has cut its purchase of JGBs in the 5-10 year window

BOJ has cut its purchase of JGBs in the 5-10 year window

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BOJ buying 430bn yen of bonds with 5 to 10 years remaining unitl maturity a cut from last time around when the bought 450bn yen If you are chasing a narrative for why yen is up , there is one for you (note the auction results came out after the yen had gained, so there…
US recession risk higher, Fed hike expectations lower say economists

US recession risk higher, Fed hike expectations lower say economists

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Reuters latest poll of economists on the US economy and Federal Reserve  probability of a US recession in the next two years has moved higher, to 40% (median of those polled), from 35% in the previous poll GDP forecasts are for slower few Fed rate hikes seen in 2019 Citing: flattening of the U.S. yield…
BOJ Tankan report for Q4 2018: Large Manufacturers index at 19 (expected 18)

BOJ Tankan report for Q4 2018: Large Manufacturers index at 19 (expected 18)

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A beat for the 'headline' result  Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, 19. Matches Q3 and a beat of estimate.  expected 18, prior was 19 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, 24. Beat here also, and ahead of Q3. expected 21, prior was 22 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, 15. I thought the outlook might have improved. Nope.  expected 17,…
Morgan Stanley: Next week’s FOMC meeting is only about one thing (preview)

Morgan Stanley: Next week's FOMC meeting is only about one thing (preview)

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Morgan Stanley: Next week's FOMC meeting is only about one thing (preview) Coming Up! Title text for next article The Federal Open Market Committee meeting December 19 an 20 is about how many interest rate hikes there will be in 2020 "will be about one thing and one thing only for investors: how many hikes…
BOJ quarterly Tankan survey of companies is due today – what to expect

BOJ quarterly Tankan survey of companies is due today - what to expect

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The Q4 Bank of Japan Tankan Survey of manufacturing and service companies, designed to assess business conditions in Japan. The BOJ Tankan is conducted quarterly. Due at 2350GMT Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, expected 18, prior was 19 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, expected 21, prior was 22 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, expected 17, prior was 19…
Draghi repeated line on “continuing confidence with increasing caution” to EU leaders

Draghi repeated line on "continuing confidence with increasing caution" to EU leaders

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Draghi met with EU leaders Draghi summarized the ECB view yesterday as "continuing confidence with increasing caution" and he repeated that line in talks with EU leaders, according to a Reuters source. Does that line make any sense? I mean caution is pretty much the antithesis of confidence. ForexLive
ECB’s de Cos says that unconventional monetary policy is here to stay

ECB's de Cos says that unconventional monetary policy is here to stay

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ECB member and Bank of Spain governor comments Well, the central bank already shelved one of those so-called unconventional policies in the form of QE yesterday. I guess the message de Cos is trying to get across here is that it doesn't mean that they will raise rates any time soon. ECB speakers have been…
ECB’s Vasiliauskas: Risks are seen tilted to the negative side

ECB's Vasiliauskas: Risks are seen tilted to the negative side

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An opposite stance to Nowotny's comment Eurozone risks are mixed, warrants monitoring Says that in the end, there was a "unanimous assessment" yesterday on language Risks are changing rapidly Need more time to figure out what's happening ForexLive
ECB’s Nowotny: Risks to growth are broadly balanced

ECB's Nowotny: Risks to growth are broadly balanced

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ECB member Ewald Nowotny speaks in Vienna Inflation is seen trending in-line with ECB goal Core inflation trend is going in the right direction ForexLive I reckon his prepared speech did not account for the negative sentiment arising from the PMI prints earlier. Well, core CPI has been trending sideways since May around the +1.0%…
de Guindos says that ECB needs to be cautious

de Guindos says that ECB needs to be cautious

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ECB vice president Luis de Guindos speaks in Frankfurt Markets are well-aligned with our policy We have to keep our optionality at the maximum level ForexLive I think after today's economic data and if future data continues to weaken, they would most definitely have to take a step back with regards to their forward guidance.…