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EURJPY has been moving sideways over the last three weeks with upper boundary the 125.05 resistance and lower boundary the 123.40 support. Currently, the mid-level of the range is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 133.10 to 118.57, around 124.10, where the price has been trading above it since January 17.
According to the technical indicators, in the 4-hour chart, the RSI and the MACD are flattening above the neutral threshold of 50 and the zero line respectively, however, the stochastic oscillator is strengthening its momentum higher in the overbought zone. It is worth mentioning, that the Bollinger bands are squeezing the price action, suggesting a possible strong break outside of the range in either direction.
If the market pushes the pair higher above the upper boundary, prices could challenge the 125.55 resistance level, taken from the low on August 17. More advances would likely open the way for the immediate resistance of the 50.0% Fibonacci of 125.85 before traders’ attention turns on the 127.10 hurdle, identified by the peak on December 27.
On the flipside, if the market manages to turn to the downside again and slips back below the 38.2% Fibonacci and the 123.40 support, this could send prices until the 122.80 support level before touching the 23.6% Fibonacci of 122.00, shifting the bias back to a more bearish one.
Concluding, EURJPY has been trading in a narrow range in the very short term, however, in the longer timeframe the price remains in a strong bearish structure following the pullback on 133.10.
USDCAD made a sharp bearish reversal down from 1.366 level, an impulsive wave A) to be specific which looks to have found a base at the 1.318 level. A recovery that followed from the lows can be part of a temporary three-wave pullback labelled as wave B), which can retrace towards the 1.344 level(level of a former swing high) and there find resistance and make a reversal lower. Also, Fibonacci ratios of 38.2 and 50.0 can react as possible turning point zones for the pair.
Cable remains firm and consolidating within tight range in early Wednesday’s trading, following Tuesday’s advance on better than expected earnings data that revived hopes of possible BoE rate hike. Technical studies on daily chart remain bullish, with positive signal being generated on Tuesday’s close above 1.2953 (Fibo 61.8% of1.3297/1.2397 descend). Pound enjoys support from hopes for smooth exit, delayed exit or possibly no exit at all, as UK labor party backs amendment that could stop scenario for no-Brexit deal. Sterling could rise further in such environment and could attack again psychological 1.30 barrier, violation of which would open way towards falling 200SMA (1.3082). Bullish bias is expected to remain in play while the price holds above 100SMA (1.2893), reinforced by rising 10SMA (1.2885) which attempts to form bull-cross and further strengthen near-term structure.
Res: 1.3000, 1.3029, 1.3082, 1.3149
Sup: 1.2942, 1.2893, 1.2885, 1.2830
The pair edged higher in Asia on Wednesday, driven by risk sentiment and weaker than expected Japan’s export data which showed the biggest fall in over two years.
Near-term action holds within 109.15/90 consolidation for the third straight day, after recovery stalled on approach to psychological 110 barrier.
Daily studies maintain strong bullish momentum which supports the action for renewed attempts towards 110 barrier.
The price needs to hold above strong support at 109.15 (broken 50% of 113.70/104.59/20SMA) supported by rising 10SMA (currently at 109.05) to keep bullish bias.
Break of key barriers at 110.00/22 (psychological resistance/Fibo 61.8% reinforced by falling 30SMA) is needed to generate bullish signal for extension of recovery leg from 109.59 (3 Jan spike low).
Conversely, near-term structure would weaken on sustained break below 109.15/05 pivots and would risk dip towards 108 support zone.
Res: 109.79, 110.00, 110.22, 110.47
Sup: 109.32, 109.15, 109.05, 108.68
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3315
Our preference Long positions above 1.3315 with targets at 1.3360 & 1.3380 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.3315 look for further downside with 1.3280 & 1.3250 as targets.
Comment A support base at 1.3315 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
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